Leeds United challenged to beat 1-in-28 play-off odds or face further ridicule at hands of promotion rivals

Daniel Farke and his young squad are potentially three games from a return to the top flight after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion. The Whites’ 90-point tally would have been enough for the Championship title in several seasons past but the 98 and 96-point hauls by Leicester City and Ipswich Town, respectively, rendered Leeds’ efforts short of what was required in 2023/24.

Numerous third place teams have still ultimately secured Premier League football via the play-off route but this particular fact is of little comfort to Leeds fans, whose well-documented play-off record is played five, lost five.

Perhaps most concerning and more relevant than play-off campaigns in years gone by is the team’s current form. Leeds have won one of their last six matches, appearing to decelerate at the most important stage of the season. The backslide from a 15-game unbeaten spell earlier this year in which the team won 13 times, has been especially surprising given how impressively and consistently Farke’s side played at the beginning of 2024. The challenge now is to rediscover something resembling that sort of form.

Data compiled by Chris Taylor, owner of popular stats website LUFCDATA, has found that in only one of the last 28 Championship seasons, has a team won just one of their last six prior to the commencement of the play-offs and still been promoted.

Further evidence suggesting end-of-season form is particularly important to play-off success is the fact three of the last four teams (Luton Town, Brentford and Fulham) to go up via the play-offs had been on seven-match unbeaten runs before embarking on successful play-off campaigns. Leeds, currently, can not boast such momentum, or anything close for that matter.

United’s unbeaten run earlier this season, in addition to their 27 league wins, including the double over semi-final opponents Norwich City, does indicate the team are very much capable of putting together a successful promotion bid via the ‘second bullet’, as Farke has coined it.

This season’s promotion rivals have been especially merciless in their end-of-season celebrations, poking fun at Leeds falling short in changing rooms and on open-top bus parades. If the Whites are to have the last laugh and join Leicester and Ipswich in the top flight, they must hit the ground running at Carrow Road this Sunday.